Is it possible for drug shops to abide by the formal rules? The structural determinants of community medicine sales in Uganda.

The medicines retail sector is an essential element of many health systems in Africa and Asia, but it is also well known for poor practice. In the literature, it is recognised that improvements in the sector can only be made if more effective forms of governance and regulation can be identified. Recent debate suggests that interventions responsive to structural constraints that shape and underpin poor practice is a useful way forward. This paper presents data from a mixed-methods study conducted to explore regulation and the professional, economic and social constraints that shape rule breaking among drug shops in one district in Uganda. Our findings show that regulatory systems are undermined by frequent informal payments, and that although drug shops are often run by qualified staff, many are unlicensed and sell medicines beyond their legal permits. Most shops have either a small profit or a loss and rely on family and friends for additional resources as they compete in a highly saturated market. We argue that in the current context, drug shop vendors are survivalist entrepreneurs operating in a market in which it is extremely difficult to abide by policy, remain profitable and provide a service to the community. Structural changes in the medicines market, including removing unqualified sellers and making adjustments to policy are likely prerequisite if drug shops are to become places where individuals can earn a living, abide by the rules and facilitate access to medicines for people living in some of the world's poorest countries.

Predicting the Impact of COVID-19 and the Potential Impact of the Public Health Response on Disease Burden in Uganda.

The COVID-19 pandemic and public health "lockdown" responses in sub-Saharan Africa, including Uganda, are now widely reported. Although the impact of COVID-19 on African populations has been relatively light, it is feared that redirecting focus and prioritization of health systems to fight COVID-19 may have an impact on access to non-COVID-19 diseases. We applied age-based COVID-19 mortality data from China to the population structures of Uganda and non-African countries with previously established outbreaks, comparing theoretical mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost. We then predicted the impact of possible scenarios of the COVID-19 public health response on morbidity and mortality for HIV/AIDS, malaria, and maternal health in Uganda. Based on population age structure alone, Uganda is predicted to have a relatively low COVID-19 burden compared with an equivalent transmission in comparison countries, with 12% of the mortality and 19% of the lost DALYs predicted for an equivalent transmission in Italy. By contrast, scenarios of the impact of the public health response on malaria and HIV/AIDS predict additional disease burdens outweighing that predicted from extensive SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Emerging disease data from Uganda suggest that such deterioration may already be occurring. The results predict a relatively low COVID-19 impact on Uganda associated with its young population, with a high risk of negative impact on non-COVID-19 disease burden from a prolonged lockdown response. This may reverse hard-won gains in addressing fundamental vulnerabilities in women and children's health, and underlines the importance of tailoring COVID-19 responses according to population structure and local disease vulnerabilities.